Apple and Motorola seem set to release their long awaited cell phone with iPod/iTunes capability in a few days. Invitations to top industry opinion leaders were sent out for the event that is scheduled for September 7th. And, very predictably, a lot of the would-be pundits have already started to play down the importance of the new device – even before they have seen it or had a chance to actually try it. They claim that the device memory will be too limited and is only a fraction of the memory available in the smallest iPod device, or that downloads will be slow and difficult at best. They believe that Apple won’t want to risk cannibalizing iPod sales. Their list of imagined shortcomings is as long as your arm. Frankly, some of them may turn out to be correct – we will know in a few days.
Still, I can’t help feeling that all the industry pundits and gurus are sitting backwards in their saddles facing the rear end of the horse holding onto the tail. They seem to believe that Apple and Motorola will be announcing a “cell phone” with additional iPod/iTunes capability. To accept that viewpoint, first you have to believe that the “cell phone” functionality is the primary driving force behind purchasing the device to begin with.
My personal view, as odd as it may seem, is that Apple and Motorola, more specifically Jobs and Zander, are about to completely redefine the metaphor. The new ‘device’ will be much more than just a cell phone with a music player jammed into the same case. It will be much closer to a iPod than a cell phone. The cell phone communications capability is important – no question – but it isn’t a compelling reason to rush out to the local store and whip out your plastic credit card. The cell phone function is just that – a function within a larger, much more capable electronic device that lets the user do anything they want, whenever they want, where ever they happen to be at the moment.
The general public has equated iPod with iTunes and has linked it to being able to hear their favorite music anytime, anyplace. The iPod already has a lot of built-in PDA functionality including a calendar and schedules. Motorola new Zanderesque mission is to create a seamless communication environment so that people can move from place to place, space to space, without interrupting their experience – be it telecommunications, text messaging, music, and eventually video.
To put it very crudely, when a cell phone humps an iPod the offspring are not going to be some pathetic and unwanted bastard child. Jobs and Zander are much, much brighter than that, and they aren’t willing to settle for a half baked compromise product. Both of them, time and again, have proven willing to make the big bet, to risk betting the farm in order to catch the brass ring on the carousel. With the iPod Jobs targeted and completely redefined the music player market – and captured over 70% along the way. Zander at Apollo and later at Sun Microsystems completely redefined the way that people think about and use computers and the internet. Now, leading Motorola, and without the constraints of having spent decades in the cell phone business, he is committed to completely redefining the way we think about and use cell phone type technology.
As for the risk of cannibalizing iPod sales, anyone that worries about that just hasn’t been paying attention. Moore and Noyce proved decades ago that if you want to lead the pack you have to be prepared to aggressively eat your own children. If a leading technology company, like Apple, gets into the mode of trying to defend sales of existing products at the expense of the next generation of products, then the game is over. Apple has to be the first one to market with the iPod killer. The bigger risk is that if they don’t do it, someone else will. And, for someone like Jobs, that is totally unthinkable.
It might not be this Wednesday, that remains to be seen. But soon, very very soon, we’re going to see a total shift in the way we use small, portable electronic devices, and my bet is that Jobs and Zander will be leading the parade.
Good writing! And good points. Apple considers Sep 7 as pivotal as the launch of the first iPod. This cannot be 140 song dreaded ROKR. Yet, this is what is built into AAPL price.
If the writer is right, Apple stock will surpass $50 next week,
Posted by: enatures | Monday, September 05, 2005 at 04:23 AM